Who’s Really Driving Prediction Markets?

Over the past year, prediction markets have moved from the financial fringe into the mainstream news cycle. Journalists now cite Kalshi and Polymarket odds alongside polling data and expert analysis, and the Iran conflict marks a watershed moment, with escalation contracts trading in real time as a de facto intelligence feed. A new kind of American has emerged who trusts the crowd over the institution and puts money behind that conviction. ELI analyzed the behavioral signals of the 17+ million Americans driving this shift. The portrait is not what anyone expected.

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17 Million US Adults projected to be active in Prediction Market behavior.

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90% Male: More gender-skewed than any ELI Report audience to date.

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2.8x More likely to choose high-risk investments: What most people call gambling, they call "research."

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Politically Driven More Than Financially

Prediction Market power users are interested in politics 13x more than the average American. Nearly half seek the latest information incessantly, looking for “tips” to inform their betting. They follow respected news sources closely, obsessively monitor polling, and have deep mistrust of institutional narratives. This distrust is exactly what motivates them to use prediction markets. They trust prediction markets as a news source more than legacy media, expert analysts, or polls.

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Probabilities Are Their Native Language

These individuals play fantasy sports at nearly four times the national average, and they’re highly engaged in competitive eSports as well. This population has spent years converting information advantages into outcome-based positions. They don’t see themselves as gamblers, and in fact they’re 43% less likely to regularly engage in traditional betting because they don’t believe in games of chance. They are probabilistic thinkers who have found a new arena where being right about a geopolitical call actually pays.

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Rejectors of Institutions Who Believe DeFi > Wall Street

Students of Decentralized Finance, or “DeFi,” engage with crypto more than 3x the national average, and they are still big believers in the most speculative of financial investments: NFTs . These are people who were already comfortable with unregulated, outcome-based speculation long before Kalshi got CFTC approval. Prediction markets didn't create this behavior. Crypto did. Kalshi and Polymarket are simply the next instrument in a risk appetite that was already fully formed.

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They’re Far From the Typical Financial Customer

Many financial platforms target urban professionals aged 25-34 in coastal financial centers, but the highest Prediction Markets players are in tech-centric secondary markets like Louisville, Nashville, Austin, and Fort Collins. These college towns and cities value geopolitical knowledge given low levels of attention. Technically fluent and politically obsessed, they are three times more likely to act aggressively online than in real life. They trust the crowd over institutions and watched Iran on Polymarket before any analyst’s take.

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What Happens Now That Prediction Markets Are Mainstream?

1. The Media Partnership Race Accelerates

Most established news outlets are already citing Kalshi and Polymarket odds in news coverage. More than a trend, it’s a land grab. Within 18 months every major news organization will have a formal prediction market data relationship — with alternative platforms potentially creating their own app — and the established players will use media legitimacy to push for broader regulatory approval.

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2. Kalshi and Polymarket will chase different markets

The behavioral data reveals two distinct user populations. Polymarket's visitors are political obsessives. Kalshi's Instagram followers skew younger and more aspirational. These platforms are already diverging. Expect Polymarket to deepen into geopolitical and political contracts while Kalshi pursues sports and financial event markets with a broader audience.

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3. The gender gap becomes a growth problem

While around 75% of all participants are male, that number soars to 90% for those driving category growth. The platforms that figure out how to bring women into prediction markets will unlock the next growth wave. None of them has cracked it yet. The first product that does so will define the category, just as Robinhood defined retail investing.

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4. A major geopolitical call will make someone famous

When prediction markets nail a major geopolitical event before the intelligence community acknowledges it publicly (perhaps the Hungarian presidential race), one platform and one prominent trader will become household names. The Iran contracts are already being cited as predictive intelligence. That moment is closer than anyone thinks.

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5. Crypto regulation will determine the ceiling

Crypto is the preferred currency of 44% of Prediction Markets enthusiasts. The regulatory environments for crypto and prediction markets are converging. If Washington treats them as the same category, both get constrained simultaneously. If it draws a clean line, prediction markets graduate to legitimacy faster than anyone expects. The 2026 election cycle is the forcing function.

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DATA SOURCES FOR THIS EDITION OF THE ELI REPORT

Insights are based on Sooth’s patent-pending methodology, which analyzes over 100 million intent signals from 220 million anonymized US adults to predict, with 91% accuracy, how their emotional, practical, and situational needs will influence their buying decisions and the subsequent impact on people, businesses, and the economy. In addition, the following sources were used for corroborating data and the qualification of predictive insights:
Prediction market audience and platform behavioral data: Sooth ELI platform, April 2026 · Prediction market attitudes and behaviors: GWI Zeitgeist, February 2026 · Iran escalation contracts: Polymarket, April 2026 · CFTC event contract approval: Kalshi, 2023 · National projections: Sooth ELI universe of 222,916,471 U.S. adults

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About Sooth & ELI

Sooth is the predictive intelligence company decoding the 93% of human decisions driven by emotional, practical, and situational needs. Powered by ELI — Sooth’s exclusive Emotional Logic Interface — Sooth uncovers hidden signals, turning audience behavior into predictive foresight. Sooth’s patent-pending methodology uses artificial intelligence to cross-reference more than 100 million intent signals with data on 300 million individuals worldwide to predict buyer tendencies with 91% predictive accuracy. For more information, visit soothbetold.com.