The New Cheap Thrills Economy

On Tuesday at 6:45 PM, two cars in the same Taco Bell drive-through outside Sebring, Florida, order the $5.49 Cravings Box. The meal’s price has increased by $1.20 over the past few years and either inflation or shrinkflation are likely to strike soon. Both drivers smile at the window and unwrap their meals in their cars before leaving.

One woman turns left, the other right. The one who turned left is already calculating whether she can afford to do this again on Thursday or needs to wait for an app coupon. She stops at the dollar store to grab some essentials: one of 40,000 such locations that now serve as the primary source of food and household goods for millions of Americans in communities where full-service grocers have closed. She eats value meal a few times a week and stops for a coffee or energy drink every morning, a habit that costs 12% more than it did a year ago as a result of coffee bean increases. To her, the cup is not a treat; but one of the few moments that still feel like she has choices.

She’s a Treader: not drowning, but there’s no rest. Every day is active work to stay afloat, and the cheap thrill purchases—the combo meal, the morning coffee, the Dollar General lip balm—are the breaths she takes between strokes. Hanging on just north of America’s poverty line at $35,500 before taxes, she’s well aware that she’s one lost shift away from swapping the morning cup for the day’s school lunch for her daughter.

The one who turns right doesn’t think about Thursday. She earns $58,000, comfortably above the poverty line, despite being just one dollar per hour too wealthy for federal assistance with her bills. She shops at the same Dollar General not out of necessity, but to save money for the drive-thru., and saves her Taco Bell yen for Tuesdays because the Cravings Box feeds two kids for under $12. Every decision is deliberate for the Pacer, who has found her rhythm and trusts her speed. She can’t see the bottom, but she’s not worried.

Sooth’s Emotional Logic Interface analyzed two populations: consumers who buy, shop, and eat out in the same way, but with different motivations based on income. Tariffs, estimated to cost the average American household $1,681 this year, will push both of them away from the only economy that works for either of them.

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$33k US Federal Poverty line, family of four, 2026.

+30% Post-pandemic US grocery price increases.

$1,681 Annual cost of tariffs per US household.

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How Treaders and Pacers Diverge in Their Decisions

Their emotional needs

Sooth’s data indicates the Treaders’ actions must meet three criteria: affordability, a positive impact on their day, and a sense of choice. They ignore budgeting advice they find emotionally unsettling. The $5 combo isn’t a sign of poor discipline. It’s the minimum that keeps her feeling human. She indulges in small luxuries and trusts brands that offer accessible indulgence. She engages more with personal content and less with politics, choosing where to direct her limited attention. The Pacer seeks convenience through products and apps that save time and maintain her rhythm. She trusts her judgment, making price comparisons often irrelevant.

The value of 50 cents

Sugar and sweets are expected to increase nearly 7%, potentially over 10%, with coffee up 12% and beef rising 5.5%, adding to last year's 15% increase. In 2025, companies absorbed 80% of tariffs; JPMorgan predicts this could drop to 20%, passing more costs to consumers. For the Treader described above, 50 cents changes her decision: at $5.49 for the Cravings Box, it's affordable and satisfying; at $5.99, she hesitates, now price-driven. For the Pacer, this price bump affects her perception of stability; 15–20% price swings challenge her confidence, leading her to freeze on what was previously a subconscious buying decision.

They intersect at the dollar store

60% of Dollar Tree’s new shoppers earn over $100,000, with the $150K+ group the fastest-growing. Dollar General plans 4,730 projects this year, including 450 new stores, remodeled for higher-margin shoppers using multi-price strategies and expanded assortments, making the store more of a savvy hack than a necessity. Bank of America’s data shows spending from the top third of earners rose 4% last year—fastest in four years—while spending from the bottom third increased less than 1%. Both groups now stand in the same checkout line; one seeks value, the other depends on it. Family Dollar has closed nearly a thousand locations since 2024, many in Southern communities where Pacers are now driving more growth than Treaders, and who find more suitable shopping at Dollar General, given its refocus on wealthier customers.

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What will happen as tariffs widen the gap between Pacers and Treaders?

1. THE $5 VALUE MEAL PRICE POINT IS STRUCTURALLY BREAKING.

Sugar and sweets face a potential 10% increase this year. Coffee is already up 12%. Businesses that absorbed 80% of tariff costs in 2025 are passing them through. The sub-$5 meal that anchors the value QSR segment — Little Caesars, Taco Bell, McDonald’s value menu — cannot hold at current prices through Q3. Expect volume declines among the lowest-income consumers by late Q2, not because demand drops but because the price point no longer exists.

2. DAILY COFFEE FREQUENCY IS THE LEADING INDICATOR TO WATCH.

For both populations, the morning coffee is the last discretionary purchase to go. When Treaders shift from branded to gas station coffee, or Pacers move from daily to every-other-day, it signals that the entire cheap thrills basket is under pressure. This will show up in Dunkin’ and convenience store same-store sales before it appears in any consumer confidence survey.

3. THE $40K-$70K CONSUMER WILL BUY LESS BEFORE SWITCHING BRANDS.

The Pacer’s first response to price erosion is not to trade down — it’s a temporary spending freeze while she reassesses. Expect a measurable dip in discretionary purchase frequency in this income band during Q2, followed by a return at lower volume. She comes back more price-aware and significantly harder to upsell.

4. DOLLAR STORE SAME-STORE SALES GROWTH WILL MASK A CUSTOMER BASE THAT'S SHIFTING.

Revenue growth driven by higher-income shoppers will obscure the decline in visit frequency among core low-income customers. Watch unit volume at price points below $2.00 as the real signal. If units decline while revenue grows, the chain is gaining margin and losing its base.

5. VALUE POSITIONING THAT LEADS WITH PRICE WILL UNDERPERFORM VALUE POSITIONING THAT LEADS WITH BELONGING.

The Treader is 21 times more likely to trust a brand that offers accessible indulgence than a store-brand equivalent. Messaging that signals “this is for people like you” outperforms messaging that signals “this is affordable.” Brands repositioning for the tariff economy should lead with identity, not discounts.

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DATA SOURCES FOR THIS EDITION OF THE ELI REPORT

Insights are based on Sooth’s patent-pending methodology, which analyzes over 100 million intent signals from 220 million anonymized US adults to predict, with 91% accuracy, how their emotional, practical, and situational needs will influence their buying decisions and the subsequent impact on people, businesses, and the economy. In addition, the following sources were used for corroborating data and qualification of predictive insights:

Federal poverty line $33K/family of four: HHS 2026 • Sugar & sweets +6.7% (to 10.2%) / Beverages +5.2% / Beef +5.5% / Coffee +11.8%: USDA ERS, Feb 2026 • Food +3.1% in 2025: BLS CPI • Groceries ~30% above pre-pandemic: BLS • Tariffs $1,681/household: Yale Budget Lab, Jan 2026 • Largest tax increase as % GDP since 1993: Tax Foundation, Feb 2026 • 80% business absorption flipping to 20%: JPMorgan/CNN, Jan 2026 • 60% Dollar Tree new shoppers earn $100K+: DT Q3 2025 earnings • $150K+ fastest-growing dollar store cohort: Consumer Edge, Feb 2026 • DG 4,730 projects / 450 stores: DG Q3 2025 • Top-third spending +4% vs. bottom-third <1%: BofA Institute, Dec 2025 • ~1,000 Family Dollar closures: industry reporting • Behavioral data: Sooth ELI platform, March 2026

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About Sooth & ELI

Sooth is the predictive intelligence company decoding the 93% of human decisions driven by emotional, practical, and situational needs. Powered by ELI — Sooth’s exclusive Emotional Logic Interface — Sooth uncovers hidden signals, turning audience behavior into predictive foresight. Sooth’s patent-pending methodology uses artificial intelligence to cross-reference more than 100 million intent signals with data on 300 million individuals worldwide to predict buyer tendencies with 91% predictive accuracy. For more information, visit soothbetold.com

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