America's Changing Coffee Economy

Coffee prices have crossed a new threshold. A regular cup now averages more than $4, up sharply from last year, while the cost of green coffee beans — the raw material behind every roast — has nearly tripled, forcing cafés and roasters to choose between passing on price hikes or shrinking margins. U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on Brazilian imports are tightening supply chains, even as the No Coffee Tax Act moves through Congress to hold the line on duties. At the same time, Starbucks is cutting hours and stores, and Keurig Dr Pepper's $18 billion acquisition of JDE Peet's is set to redefine the at-home market. For consumers already anxious about inflation and job security, every latte now carries an economic subtext. Brew-at-home habits are rising, "treat" purchases are being rationed, with coffee now less about indulgence and more about control. This edition of The ELI Report decodes how those financial and emotional pressures are reshaping one of America's most personal rituals — and what the industry's next move might reveal about the state of the U.S. consumer.

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ELI's Crystal Ball - 5 Predictions for U.S. consumer coffee habits from Sooth's Emotional Logic Interface:

1. Tariff pass-through will test premium loyalty in 2026: As import duties and shipping costs affect green-bean supply chains, café and boutique roasters face elasticity shock — making loyal customers reconsider the $7 pour.
2. Café traffic will flatten as more people trade habit for hardware: Drive-through frequency will dip as convenience drinkers buy single-serve brewers to replicate the ritual at home, reducing QSR coffee volumes while appliance and pod sales rise.
3. Private-label coffee will gain two full share points in grocery by 2027. Home brewers normalize store-brand beans as symbols of prudence, turning retailer trust into brand equity and signaling the nation's ongoing "value-as-virtue" migration.
4. QSR and convenience brands will reframe caffeine as comfort, not speed: To retain store traffic, mass chains will pivot from productivity to emotional reward — selling the five-minute coffee break as mental-health hygiene.
5. The 'treat cup' proves recession-proof: Across the category, occasional indulgence remains: one sweet, flavored, or speciality purchase per week, making "small-luxury" the safest stance in a shaky economy.

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Five Caffeinated MindTribes Creating America's Coffee Future:

Budget Brewers (50%) - Family-first value keepers

ELI sees: Pragmatic providers who buy on price more than brand, proving that thrift and togetherness can share the same warm mug.

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Home Ritualists (24%) - Comfort-driven brewers

ELI sees: Daily brewers who guard their first cup like an emotional firewall — each home pour a quiet act of control in lives that rarely pause.

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Chain Caffeinators (6%) - Drive-through disciplinarians

ELI sees: Anxious achievers topping up on their trusted to-go brands as self-preservation — chasing productivity through every refill.

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Bean Elitists (6%) - Taste-driven status seekers

ELI sees: brand-conscious sippers who treat their coffee choices as self-expression — turning discernment into identity one daily roast at a time.

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Companion Cuppers (14%) - Connection-seeking traditionalists

ELI sees: Highly social Millennials and Gen Zers who link every cup to company — brewing comfort, conversation, and continuity to stay grounded through uncertainty.

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About Sooth & ELI

Sooth is the predictive intelligence company decoding the 93% of human decisions driven by emotional, practical, and situational needs. Powered by ELI — Sooth's exclusive Emotional Logic Interface — Sooth uncovers hidden signals, turning audience behavior into predictive foresight. Sooth's patent-pending methodology uses artificial intelligence to cross-reference more than 100 million intent signals with data on 300 million individuals worldwide to predict buyer tendencies with 91% predictive accuracy. For more information, visit soothbetold.com and eliwashere.ai.

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