Last week, KPMG's chief economist called the latest labor data "gut-wrenching." The quit rate is frozen at 2% — workers clinging to jobs out of fear, not confidence. Job openings are down by nearly 900,000 year over year. This is the "Great Stay" in full effect: employees too scared to leave, employers too cautious to hire.
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The fear is justified. Tyson Foods is cutting 4,900 jobs this month. Meta is reducing Reality Labs staff by 10%. GM just laid off 1,140 at its EV plant. More than half of U.S. companies say they expect layoffs this year, even as they individually claim to be hiring. And it’s just seven working days into the new year.
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In its December 29 ELI Report on the Consumer Debt Iceberg, Sooth data predicted a clamp-down on consumer credit that is now already underway. President Donald Trump called for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates this weekend — a response to average APRs that now exceed 25%, the highest on record. The Bank Policy Institute estimates this would reduce credit lines for 14.3 million Americans because banks don’t lend at a loss—they just stop lending.

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For millions of Americans who used Buy Now, Pay Later to get through the holidays — and were counting on new credit to bridge the gap — both doors are closing at once. Job fear that doesn't appear in unemployment data is converging with debt that doesn't appear on credit reports in real-time. This report maps the behavioral footprint of four populations caught in that squeeze: who's racing to lock in credit before it disappears, who's building backup income streams, who's hunkering down, and who's already gambling for windfalls as they run out of time, money, and job prospects.

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2% of job losses are voluntary — the lowest in 12 years — due to lack of opportunities.

25% Average credit card interest rate, the highest on record.

14.3 million Americans who would lose credit access under a 10% APR cap

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How US Consumers Are Handling the Credit Crunch

LIQUIDITY SEEKERS (31 million Americans) see the squeeze coming, and they're racing to beat it. These are the planners — the ones checking credit card offers before they need them, lining up a personal loan "just in case." They're not in crisis yet. They're preparing for one. Klarna, Affirm, and AfterPay are already part of their toolkit. Job security worry runs high, but unlike other groups, they're channeling anxiety into action: locking in access to credit while the doors are still open. The behavioral
footprint says strategic, not desperate — for now.

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INCOME STACKERS (23 million) aren't waiting for a pink slip. They're actively searching online for jobs while still employed. Gig economy participation is nearly four times the national average. One in three holds multiple jobs. They're building redundancy into their income, the way engineers build redundancy into bridges: assuming something will fail, without knowing which part or when. Credit applications are part of the same pattern — stacking access to capital as insurance against volatility
they expect, but can't predict.

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CUTBACKERS (20 million) have stopped reaching for more. They're hunkering down — deal apps open daily, not occasionally. Coupons. Price comparisons. The grind of optimization. But spending compression has a cost, and it shows up in how they cope: BetMGM, cannabis, Smirnoff Seltzer. These aren't splurges. They're $7 pressure valves. Job-security worry is as high as in other groups, but Cutbackers aren't seeking new credit. They've decided the answer is less, not more — and they're white-knuckling through it.

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LAST-RESORT BORROWERS (16 million) are the ones who've run out of rational options. Barstool, FanDuel, DraftKings — gambling at seven to eight times the national average. They're not betting for entertainment. They're hunting for a windfall that will bail them out, because the math no longer works any other way, and they’re consuming sleep aids at 5 times the average rate. New credit cards and loans are in their plans, even as approval rates decline. For this group, credit isn't a tool. It's a lifeline being pulled out of reach.

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How the Big Credit Squeeze will impact consumers and credit throughout 2026

1. Buy Now, Pay Later delinquencies will surface in traditional credit data. The 90-day lag between missed BNPL payments and their impact on credit reports means Q1 is when phantom debt becomes visible. Lenders who underwrote 2025 loans based on incomplete data will see early payment defaults spike.

2. Credit card rejection rates will climb — and applicants will keep applying. When Liquidity Seekers and Last-Resort Borrowers hit closed doors, they don't stop. They apply again. Watch for surging application volume paired with declining approval rates — a sign of desperation, not demand.

3. Online Gambling will see a short-term windfall. Unlike other growth periods for the category, Sportsbook growth in Q1 will be driven more by consumer desperation than confidence, with Sooth data indicating an increasing concentration of gambling among the most financially stressed populations.

4. Gig platform signups will accelerate through March, while individual earnings may dip. Income Stackers are already building backup income at nearly four times the average rate. As job anxiety spreads from the frozen to the fearful, gig-economy platforms will see enrollment surge—but per-worker earnings will compress as supply outpaces demand.

5. Sleep aid and other stress-coping purchases will quietly climb. Sales of over-the-counter sleep aids, already consumed at 5X the norm by the most financially stressed consumers, will be met by increased sales of cannabis, melatonin, and alcohol. The physical signs of financial stress will manifest— visible on retail shelves even if invisible to lenders and retailers.

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DATA SOURCES FOR THIS EDITION OF THE ELI REPORT

Insights are based on Sooth’s patent-pending methodology, which analyzes over 100 million intent signals from 220
million anonymized US adults to predict, with 91% accuracy, how their emotional, practical, and situational needs will
influence their buying decisions and the subsequent impact on people, businesses, and the economy. In addition, the
following sources were used for corroborating data and qualification of predictive insights:
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• 47.6% cure rate on delinquent accounts: CFPB Consumer Credit Market Report, January 2026
• 2.3% balance growth projection: TransUnion 2026 Consumer Credit Forecast, December 2025
• 14.3 million Americans impacted by rate cap: Bank Policy Institute analysis, January 2026
• 2% quit rate — lowest since 2014: Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS, January 2026
• Tyson Foods 4,900 job cuts: Recruiting News Network, January 2026
• GM Factory Zero 1,140 layoffs: Recruiting News Network, January 2026
• 55% of companies expect layoffs while hiring: Resume.org Hiring Manager Survey, January 2026
• Trump 10% rate cap proposal: White House statement, January 11, 2026

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About Sooth & ELI

Sooth is the predictive intelligence company decoding the 93% of human decisions driven by emotional, practical, and situational needs. Powered by ELI — Sooth’s exclusive Emotional Logic Interface — Sooth uncovers hidden signals, turning audience behavior into predictive foresight. Sooth’s patent-pending methodology uses artificial intelligence to cross-reference more than 100 million intent signals with data on 300 million individuals worldwide to predict buyer tendencies with 91% predictive accuracy. For more information, visit soothbetold.com.

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