Who Prediction Market Traders Really Are: More DeFi Enthusiast, Less Sports Bettor

In a new interview with Gambling Insider from Sooth's ELI Report, founder Ian Baer reframes who actually trades on prediction markets — and the answer reshapes the competitive landscape. Of the 17 million Americans expected to participate in 2026, only 40-50% also bet on sports, far less crossover than the industry has assumed. These users engage with cryptocurrency at triple the national rate, prefer decentralized finance over traditional banks, cluster in tech-forward cities like Nashville, Austin, and Fort Collins, and are 90% male. Baer told Gambling Insider that whichever platform cracks the female-user gap could secure dominant U.S. market share — a strategic opening visible only when the actual customer is correctly identified. The interview also surfaced Baer's stronger argument for prediction markets as "truth engines": after multiple recent presidential cycles of polling inaccuracy, he says he'd trust where Kalshi and Polymarket users put their money over any political survey.