Big-Box Loyalty is Breaking Down: The Future of Home Improvement & DIY

Home Depot's second-quarter earnings miss highlights a broader shift in home improvement. The traditional growth model — built on big-box loyalty — is breaking down. Sooth's segmentation and ELI's analysis of 1.5 million current U.S. home remodeling intenders reveal that growth will no longer be defined by product or geography, but by six distinct emotional, practical, and situational mindsets driving how people approach remodeling.

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ELI's Big 5 Predictions for the U.S. Do-It-Yourself Home Improvement Market:

1. Home Depot will lose 3-6 share points to Lowes, IKEA, Michaels, Walgreens, and others without a pivot to comfort, creativity, and consumables.
2. By 2027, Michaels, Sherwin-Williams, and Benjamin Moore siphon 10-15% of DIY dollars from big box.
3. By 2027, color overtakes appliances in driving kitchen upgrades.
4. By 2028, 20% of remodel baskets will include consumables.
5. Comfort remodels will grow 2x faster than ROI upgrades.

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Six Home Remodeler Tribes

Big Box Weekenders - Get it done, reduce risk.

ELI sees: Brand parity among big-box leaders — price and convenience drive choice.

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Crafty Decorators - Use creativity to make my home my own.

ELI sees: Michaels is emerging as a preferred alternative to big box retail.

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Value Upgraders - Enhance life and property value without overspending.

ELI sees: Everyday retailers like Walgreens are quietly stealing share here.

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Fresh Coaters - Refresh and beautify.

ELI sees: Paint acts as the remodeler's gateway, with specialty stores like Sherwin-Williams drawing customers from big-box retailers.

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Haven Builders - Create an ideal family environment.

ELI sees: Home improvements are more a matter of seeking comfort than aesthetics.

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Provisioners - Keep it stocked, keep it simple.

ELI sees: Convenience and simplicity lead these DIY enthusiasts to prioritize consumables over durable goods and capital home improvements to improve home life.

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About Sooth & ELI

Sooth is the predictive intelligence company decoding the 93% of human decisions driven by emotional, practical, and situational needs. Powered by ELI — Sooth's exclusive Emotional Logic Interface — Sooth uncovers hidden signals, turning audience behavior into predictive foresight. Sooth's patent-pending methodology uses artifical intelligence to cross-reference more than 100 million intent signals with data on 300 million individuals worldwide to predict buyer tendencies with 91% predictive accuracy. For more information, visit soothbetold.com and eliwashere.ai.