Broke and Buying: Why Financially Anxious Americans Will Spend More Than Ever This Holiday

84% of Americans say they'll cut back on spending over the next six months, according to PwC. 57% expect the economy to weaken—the most pessimistic outlook since 1997. McKinsey describes 2025 shoppers as "timid," amid a level of consumer pessimism and anxiety not seen since the 1950s.

Yet, U.S. holiday spending will top $1 trillion for the first time in 2025. A record 186.9 million shoppers will visit stores over Thanksgiving weekend. Black Friday online sales are projected at $11.7 billion—an 8.3% increase from last year, with Cyber Monday expected to be the biggest online shopping day in U.S. history.

Sooth's analysis of over one million Americans who exhibit intense budget anxiety and engage in active holiday shopping behavior decodes the dynamics driving the disconnect: three types of holiday shoppers, each with a unique emotional override that makes their anxiety an afterthought.

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ELI's Crystal Ball — 5 Predictions on How Holiday Shopping Will Lead to a New Retail Reality in 2026

1. Consumer sentiment tracking will go the way of political polls. The $1 trillion disconnect proves it: what people say and what they do are two different data sets. Brands using confidence indices to plan inventory and staffing for the 2025 Holiday season may be caught off guard and lose sales to better-prepared competitors—in turn, driving a shift in retail forecasting models for 2026 and beyond.
2. Permission overtakes promotion. Anxious consumers need validation even more than discounts. Brands that help shoppers justify their purchases—"you've worked hard," "your family deserves this," "this is the smart choice"—will outperform those still racing to the bottom on price. 2026 holiday campaigns will be built around emotional permission, not percentage off.
3. "Buy Now, Pay Later" will shift from a financial tool to an emotional enabler. "Pay over time" is table stakes—every checkout has it. The next battleground is messaging: retailers and brands that help shoppers feel confident about buying (not just comfortable with the payment plan) will capture the anxious-but-spending consumer. Look for BNPL players Affirm, Klarna, and Afterpay to recognize this shift in tone in the months to come.
4. America's "deal economy" will hit diminishing returns. When everyone's offering 30% off, no one is. Consumers have been trained to expect discounts—but the dopamine hit is fading. The brands that break through in 2026 won't win on price; they'll win on scarcity, service, access, exclusivity, or meaning. The race to the bottom is reaching the bottom.
5. January's financial hangover will create a new marketing moment. The gap between shopping desires and financial anxiety isn't going away; it simply delays. By 2026, millions will have credit card bills that don't align with their intentions. Brands that show empathy through "fresh start" messaging, budgeting tools, and campaigns recognizing overspending will be perceived as transparent and gain favor, whereas those perceived as encouragign debt will fall behind.

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The Three Tribes Anxiously Navigating This Holiday Retail Season:

• Competitive Shoppers (34%) Hunting bargains as a way to fight back against the economy. Treating deal hunting as a sport, they obsessively check price comparison sites (43x more than average Americans), stack browser extensions like Honey and Rakuten, and approach Black Friday like Super Bowl Sunday. Heavy e-sport fans and early tech adopters have gamified financial stress into a competition. The worse the economic news, the higher the stakes—and the sweeter the victory when they land a deal no one else has found.
• Ride-or-Die Traditionalists (35%) Ritual and tradition overtake self-control. This segment recognizes that the math doesn't add up, but they still fill their carts during holidays. Mostly young, multicultural, especially Hispanic, they're financially cautious but culturally rooted. Holidays are sacred, not just expenses. They host Thanksgiving, celebrate Christmas, and pass on traditions. They'll deal with January afterward. Despite anxiety, the rituals stay unavoidable.
• Obligated Providers (31%) Holiday spending isn't optional; paying full price is. The most parent-heavy segment, these shoppers aren't celebrating the holidays as much as executing a careful family holiday plan that depends on finding great prices on holiday gits. Kids need presents. Family expects gatherings. The season calls for participation. They compare prices with the same intensity as the Competitive Shoppers, but deal hunting is a matter of financial survival, not sport.

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About Sooth & ELI

Sooth is the predictive intelligence company decoding the 93% of human decisions driven by emotional, practical, and situational needs. Powered by ELI — Sooth’s exclusive Emotional Logic Interface — Sooth uncovers hidden signals, turning audience behavior into predictive foresight. Sooth’s patent-pending methodology uses artificial intelligence to cross-reference more than 100 million intent signals with data on 300 million individuals worldwide to predict buyer tendencies with 91% predictive accuracy. For more information, visit soothbetold.com and eliwashere.ai.

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