How are Families Getting Ready for Back-to-School?

This year's back-to-school season is colliding with historic financial strain. Nearly half of U.S. parents say they'll go into debt to cover supplies, with the average cost exceeding $570 per child. It's not just shopping — it's stress. Sooth's ELI analysis of more than 400,000 prime back-to-school shoppers shows that category growth is being defined by four emotional, practical, and situational mindsets that influence how families are getting ready for the school year in America.

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ELI's Big 5 Predictions for the U.S. Back-to-School Consumer Market:

1. Dollar growth: By 2027, Dollar Tree, Five Below, and value pharmacies gain 5-7 share points of back-to-school baskets.
2. Staples revival: Seasonal surges will give Staples its highest traffic share in a decade by 2026.
3. Snack-to-school: By 2028, one in five back-to-school baskets will include food or household basics.
4. Tech tilt: By 2027, electronics will overtake apparel as the #1 spend category for back-to-school.
5. Fragmentation ahead: No single retailer will control more than 35% of family preference by 2028, as bundling and multi-stop behavior grow.

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Four Back-to-School MindTribes:

Provisioners - Keep it stocked, keep it simple.

ELI sees: Back-to-school baskets blur into grocery and household provisioning, with snacks and basics riding alongside supplies.

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Strategic Stockpilers - Stretch the list across value chains.

ELI sees: Parents stretch budgets by splitting runs across Target, Walmart, Dollar Tree, and Staples to cover lists at the lowest total cost.

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Bundlers - One trip, everything included.

ELI sees: Families fold school shopping into all-in-one errand runs — apparel, dining, and household bundled with supplies.

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Specialists - Precision shoppers.

ELI sees: A seasonal resurgence of Staples and category specialists as parents make focused supply-led missions.

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About Sooth & ELI

Sooth is the predictive intelligence company decoding the 93% of human decisions by emotional, practical, and situational needs. Powered by ELI — Sooth's exclusive Emotional Logic Interface — Sooth uncovers hidden signals, turning audience behavior into predictive foresight. Sooth's patent-pending methodology uses artificial intelligence to cross-reference more than 100 million intent signals with data on 300 million individuals worldwide to predict buyer tendencies with 91% predictive accuracy. For more information, visit soothbetold.com and eliwashere.ai.

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