Gen Z's Black Friday Shocker Will Alter America's Retail Landscape

Research from PwC said that Gen Z would cut holiday spending by 23% this year—the steepest decline of any generation. They reported tighter budgets, shorter gift lists, and plans to sit out Black Friday. Deloitte called them "on the fence." Marketing Dive warned brands to brace for a 34% retreat in spending. And like most political polling in recent years, this research proved dead wrong about the eventual outcomes.

Then 72% of Gen Z shoppers showed up in stores on Black Friday—the highest rate of any generation and 30% above the national average, accounting for 20% of all holiday spending. And according to Bazaarvoice, this trend will continue through the holidays, with 18-34 year-olds increasing their holiday spending year over year by 19%, more than double the rate of older shoppers.

Sooth's analysis of Gen Z Black Friday deal shoppers reveals what used to represent a big-box retail feeding frenzy now feeds a very different set of emotional needs for America's youngest generation of consumers—effects that may permanently alter the holiday retail landscape.

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ELI's Crystal Ball — 5 Predictions for Gen Z's Impact on the future of U.S. Retail

1. "Budget-conscious" shoppers will be more valuable to brands, not less. Gen Z has redefined careful spending as strategic allocation, not reduction. Brands treating budget shoppers as downmarket will lose to competitors who recognize deal-seeking as sophistication, not constraint. "Value" messaging shifts from "affordable" to "smart."
2. Resale platforms graduate from discount channels to primary retail. Poshmark, Depop, and ThredUp aren't Gen Z's backup plan—they're the first stop. Retailers ignoring the resale economy will compete with their own products at lower prices without a seat at the table. Major brands launch certified resale programs or make acquisition plays.
3. Products will be defined by access, not ownership. Rent-to-own, subscriptions, and BNPL aren't financial crutches for Gen Z—they're preferences. The Posh Hacker mentality treats access as smarter than ownership. Retailers optimizing for one-time purchases lose share to brands offering flexible, ongoing product relationships.
4. Values-based premium becomes the new luxury. Mindful Upgraders aren't trading down—they're trading over to brands aligned with their convictions. Clean beauty, organic staples, and ethical sourcing command price premiums that traditional luxury signals cannot. "Premium" gets redefined by ingredient transparency and brand values over heritage and exclusivity.
5. Early-access drops become the new doorbusters. Gen Z showed up more than any other generation between 6-9 AM on Black Friday—not for chaos, but for community. Shopping is now an event, a sport, a shared experience. Retailers creating urgency, gamification, and exclusivity around limited windows capture disproportionate Gen Z loyalty.

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The Three Tribes Behind Gen Z's Black Friday Shocker:

• Lifestyle Maintainers (34%) Hunting deals to protect the life they've already built. Young parents, sports and concert attendees, premium streaming subscribers—they've already defined their lifestyle, and now they're defending it. They optimize ruthlessly elsewhere (public transit, budget groceries, skipping alcohol) to protect spending on experiences and cultural participation. The lifestyle is non-negotiable; the budget works around it.
• Posh Hackers (33%) Finding the side door to status. Resale platforms such as Poshmark aren't their backup plan—they're the lead strategy. They study fashion magazines and tech blogs as background research for the life they're building. They follow aspirational fitness accounts before trying the techniques and buying the gear. Every behavior says the same thing: their taste level is locked in; the price needs to catch up.
• Mindful Upgraders (33%) Using deals to buy up to their values, not down to their budget. They're buying better because their convictions demand it. Origins and Philosophy skincare. Organic milk. Natural toothpaste. A strong Hispanic/Latina cultural influence, often faith-based. They'll choose Shake Shack over cheap fast food and pay for YouTube Premium. Their values motivate their purchase decisions. Great deals help afford what they value.

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About Sooth & ELI

Sooth is the predictive intelligence company decoding the 93% of human decisions driven by emotional, practical, and situational needs. Powered by ELI — Sooth’s exclusive Emotional Logic Interface — Sooth uncovers hidden signals, turning audience behavior into predictive foresight. Sooth’s patent-pending methodology uses artificial intelligence to cross-reference more than 100 million intent signals with data on 300 million individuals worldwide to predict buyer tendencies with 91% predictive accuracy. For more information, visit soothbetold.com and eliwashere.ai.

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