Year-End Special Edition: ELI's 2026 Forecast

Brands, businesses, marketers, and consumers will look back on 2025 as the year when nearly every marketing tradition and standby practice broke. After starting the year with a newly elected US President most polls predicted would lose, consumer sentiment surveys kept missing — calling shoppers "timid" as they spent record amounts, predicting Gen Z would cut back even as they showed up more than any other generation.

Meanwhile, 95% of corporate AI pilots failed. Streaming subscribers turned churn into normal behavior, flying in the face of decades-old business models. Cannabis users matured into patients managing specific conditions, not twenty-somethings chasing highs. Workers told researchers they feared layoffs, yet only 23% took active steps to find new employment. Mental health has become the latest DIY platform, with people relying on solutions ranging from therapy apps to AI chat. TikTok and Instagram have become search engines. And the traditional career path quietly began to collapse while most people weren't paying attention.

Predictable, repeating models of customer behavior didn't simply underperform; for many, they stopped working altogether.

This special edition distills a year of Sooth's behavioral analysis into 20 predictions across four categories — the shifts that will define 2026.

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What's Inside This Special Edition of The ELI Report

Using ELI's analysis of more than 100 million behavioral signals across 17 category studies conducted in 2025, Sooth has identified 20 shifts likely to define the year for advertisers and marketers in 2026 — five each in Consumerism, Brands, Business, and Marketing. All insights are based on Sooth’s patent-pending methodology, which analyzes over 100 million intent signals from 220 million anonymized US adults to predict with 91% accuracy how their emotional, practical, and situational needs will influence their buying decisions — and the subsequent impact on people, businesses, and the economy.

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ELI's Crystal Ball: The Consumer Shifts That Will Define 2026

The Permission Economy Arrives.

Americans spent over $1 trillion this holiday season after telling researchers they planned to cut back. The gap between what people say and what they do has never been wider. “Buy Now, Pay Later” has evolved from a soft-credit payment option into a permission structure that allows consumers to feel responsible while taking on debt. Personal recognition will outperform traditional rewards and promotional offers. The brands that understood this cleaned up in Q4. The ones still racing to the bottom on price are wondering what happened.

Resale is Reborn.

Gen Z's lifestyle hackers aren't using Depop and ThredUp as backup plans — they're the first stop. Studying fashion sites and influencers as research, then hunting the secondary market for the exact item at the right price. This isn't bargain shopping; It's strategic acquisition. As with most trends that start with America’s youngest adults, their older cohorts will follow suit, beginning with thirty-somethings. By the end of 2026, a surprising list of major brands and retailers will have to choose whether to launch certified resale programs or watch their own products compete against them without a seat at the table.

The survey-industrial complex loses more credibility.

PwC said Gen Z would cut spending by 23%. Then, before retailers could adjust their plans and expectations, these consumers showed up at higher rates than any other generation. Deloitte called shoppers “timid," and just weeks later, those same people spent a record $1 trillion. Consumer sentiment tracking is following the path of political polling — still conducted, increasingly ignored, and desperate for a “Plan B.” Companies that plan inventory and staffing based on confidence indices will be caught off guard. The ones analyzing real-time signals will eat their respective lunches.

Mass Luxury Evolves into Constrained Indulgence.

Americans aren't cutting back — they're reallocating. Flying Spirit to afford Botox. Shopping at Aldi to protect their streaming subscriptions. Trading down on paper goods to trade up on coffee. The pattern shows up across every category we studied: strategic austerity in the background, small luxuries protected at all costs. The Pumpkin Spice Latte survives. The ad-free TV subscription doesn't. Brands positioned in the middle — not cheap enough to be practical, not meaningful enough to be worth protecting — get squeezed out.

The BNPL bill comes due.

“Four easy payments" seemed to many like smart shopping in December. And it fooled even the creditors into overextending. By February, those small charges of $47 and $83 add up to an unexpected total for consumers—causing default rates to rise. Providers tighten credit. Return rates on BNPL purchases increase as consumers try to recover cash. The “worry-free financing” story ends when January's bills arrive. Retailers who heavily relied on BNPL as a conversion tool realize the hidden costs—and begin reconsidering both native and partnership options for deferred payments by holiday 2026.

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ELI's Crystal Ball: The Brand Shifts That Will Define 2026

Cannabis Evolves from Recreational to Functional.

The category finally admits what the data already shows: most users are treating symptoms, not chasing highs: from anxiety, to sleep, anti-inflammation, and chronic pain. By the end of 2026, brands promoting stress relief and sleep support will decisively outsell vibe-based strains. Dispensaries will start resembling pharmacies more. Doctors will recommend cannabis before prescribing sleep aids. The rebrand was always inevitable — it happens in 2026.

Storytelling Becomes a Requirement for Premium Brands.

Domestic beer without a story or legend continues to lose market share. Fast-food chains' recycling of celebrity collaborations fail to encourage new trials or support product launches — instead, they mostly attract loyal drive-through customers who would buy anyway. Coffee brands that emphasize speed lose to those that focus on comfort. This pattern repeats across categories: products that lack a story, origin, or purpose become commoditized. Intention, meaning, and shared values matter more than product, price, or promotion for the most valuable and potentially loyal customers in most categories.

Streaming Platforms Learn to Embrace Churn.

Fighting cancellation is a losing battle. Smarter streaming services accept seasonal and special-interest rotation as
reality and build for it — 30-day passes, pause credits, seasonal pricing, on-off plan functionality, and easy re-subscribe flows. Loyalty shifts from the platform to the content. The "subscription economy" becomes the "rotation economy."

Zero-Alcohol Goes Mainstream.

By the end of 2026, every major beverage brand will have a serious NA play. Celebrity low-ABV launches will outsell celebrity hard liquor brands. One in five game-day pours is non-alcoholic. Non-imbibing is increasingly seen as wellness rather than abstinence. Brands and manufacturers without an NA strategy, as well as restaurants that have relied on the margins from alcohol-soaked checks, lose market share to those who saw the trend coming and pivoted in time.

"Price protection" becomes table stakes.

After a holiday season in which 40% of shoppers bought more out of anxiety than excitement, consumers will expect best-price guarantees, reducing its significance as a retail advantage. “Find a better price, and we'll refund the difference" moves from differentiator to expectation — as standard as free returns by year's end. The discount wars exhaust themselves. Regret protection becomes a new battleground in retail promotion and merchandising.

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ELI's Crystal Ball: The Business Shifts That Will Define 2026

Corporate Markers of AI Success Evolve From Doing to Succeeding.

Following a 95% failure rate among AI pilots in 2025, the focus shifts to using AI to do more than cut labor costs. Shareholders no longer accept learning as a basis for strategic investment. AI winners in 2026will be those who prove business cases for operational performance gains and customer growth. Everyone else will spend 2026 quietly killing AI projects, reversing bad choices, or burning cash until someone forces the question.

The Traditional Career Path Collapses as Portfolio Careers Normalize.

81% of workers fear losing their jobs. But most are frozen — waiting, worrying, doing nothing. Rather than conventional job hunting, a model of income diversification and on-the-job skill development has become the norm for a growing group of self sufficient business survivalists. "Portfolio career" enters mainstream vocabulary. Hiring managers start valuing diverse experience over linear tenure. Fractional roles extend beyond the C-suite and span every organizational level. The old talent retention and recruiting playbook feels like a distant dream by December 2026.

Financial and Mental Wellness Emerge as Employee Benefits.

Employers have watched their workers struggle with money stress and mental health in silence for years. In 2026, they start doing something about it — not out of generosity, but math. Budget coaching, financial counseling, mental health app subscriptions, and even shopping stipends show up in benefits packages. The companies that help employees manage the stress of modern life outperform on retention. Wellness stops being a line item in CSR and becomes a competitive advantage in hiring.

The Middle Market Hollows Out.

Businesses face a binary choice: compete on price or compete on meaning. The middle — not cheap enough to win on value, not distinctive enough to command a premium — empties out. Car dealerships aggressively position used vehicles over financing incentives as an antidote for mass sticker shock. Fast food is divided into dollar menus and quality-focused concepts. Streaming splits into ad-supported free and pay-for-premium tiers. Mass retail splits into more clearly defined discount and specialty. Companies that still try to be "good enough for everyone" lose market share from both ends.

Retailers Adjust After an Unexpected Bad Debt Hangover.

Retailers who leaned into deferred payment options to boost Q4 sales conversions begin to feel the pain in the first half of 2026— spiking return rates, straining customer service resources, and weighing down brand association with debt stress. By holiday 2026, stricter return policies for BNPL purchases are standard. Some retailers walk away from the partnerships entirely.

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ELI's Crystal Ball: The Marketing Shifts That Will Define 2026

AIO Starts Nudging Out SEO.

AI shopping assistants don't work like search engines. They recommend based on why someone is buying, not what keywords they typed. The same query from different shoppers yields completely different results—brands optimizing for Google miss this entirely. By year's end, various forms of motivation-match scores appear in AI tools, and a new industry of AIO consultants emerges — charging premium rates to make brands discoverable in conversational commerce.

"Doorbuster" Marketing Cools as Black Friday Evolves to Full-Season Holiday Strategies.

The time-locked sprint from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday is over. Retailers start running "Black Friday Preview" promotions in September and don't stop with “Last Chance” deals until Christmas. What used to be a weekend becomes a twelve-week campaign. The frenzy gets spread thin. Doorbuster urgency fades as shoppers learn to wait — and wait — for the deal that's always coming, aided and optimized by intelligent shopping companions. By 2027, "Black Friday" gives way to “Shopping Szn.

Validation Becomes a Brand Lever.

Traditional funnel thinking assumed awareness led to consideration, which led to conversion. But anxious shoppers stall at purchase justification, before ever getting to brand consideration. They’ve already decided they want it. They need help believing it's okay to buy it. The brands that build validation into their messaging — "you've earned this," "this is the smart choice," "your family deserves this" — see conversion lifts that discount-first brands can't match. Permission becomes a creative strategy, not just a consumer insight.

Social Feeds Become Search Engines.

For a growing share of shoppers, TikTok and Instagram aren't awareness channels — they're where purchase decisions start. Product research happens in the feed, not the search bar. Brands still treating social as top-of-funnel miss that it's become the whole funnel. The platforms know it. The ad products are shifting to match. Marketers who don't adjust continue to optimize for a journey that no longer exists.

Live Sports Becomes the Last Vestige of Must-See TV.

As churn becomes normal across streaming, subscriptions, and all forms of brand loyalty, only one category holds the line: live sports. Rights bundled with betting perks create a retention moat that no other can match. The streamers and networks that secured exclusive live sports rights move ahead, while those who, like ESPN, walked away from those expensive but highly sticky deals will be left scrambling to justify their ad rates and subscription prices, eventually becoming someone’s devalued target for acquisition or contraction.