How Fast Food's Future May Leave Big Brands Behind

America’s fast-food industry is showing real cracks. Store traffic is slipping, franchisees are rebelling against unprofitable “value” meals, home delivery has blurred brands, and the category is recycling old tricks — from celebrity collabs to the return of McDonald’s Monopoly — in an effort to capture attention. According to new data from Sooth, those familiar strategies now only attract 57% of customers who eat out of habit. Nearly all future growth will come from the other 43%: Experimenters, Cravers, Balancers, and Provisioners. They match fast food to context, not routine, choosing based on utility, occasion, and human connection rather than price, prizes, or nostalgia. Appealing to the needs of these growth tribes will decide the next wave of market share gains and losses across America’s fast-food economy.

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ELI's Crystal Ball: 5 Predictions For U.S. Consumer Fast Food Behavior and Category Performance

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1. Rising cost of goods and tariffs will trigger a margin reset by mid-2026. New import duties and 6-9% cost inflation will cut franchise profit 2-3 points. $5-$7 value deals will steady traffic but force menu and pricing resets within 12 months.
2. Menu innovation will matter more to growth audiences: Dollar deals and gimmicks will fade while choice, quality, and convenience will trigger share shifts.
3. By 2027, fast food will operate on two frequencies: Price vs. Relevance. Brands that best serve both will take the majority of share growth over the next two years.
4. Preference will overtake location by 2027: Mobile, delivery, and pickup will account for more than 40% of transactions within two years. Convenience will evolve from location to fit—how easily customers can order, customize, and collect their meals.
5. Group and shared orders will be the next big thing: By 2027, group fast food orders will grow 6-8%. Brands that make it simple to order, split, and share will unlock growth at the expense of legacy single-order models.

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The Five Tribes Driving America's Fast Food Economy:

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Regulars (57%) – The backbone of the fast food industry

They choose fast food not for novelty but for reliability and consistency — tend to order the same items, from the same locations, at the same times of day.

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Experimenters (16%) – Curiosity-driven experience seekers

Adventurous eaters who treat the menu like a discovery feed. They chase new items, limited-time bundles, tech innovations, and pop culture collaborations.

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Cravers (5%) – Seeking indulgence to match a moment

They show up big when the craving hits — late, loud, celebratory, and impulsive — and show up again when the next mood strikes.

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Balancers (10%) – The intersection of convenience and restraint

They still want comfort and speed, but seek smaller portions, lighter cues, or self-permission built on control.

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Provisioners (11%) – Using fast food for shared occasions

Keeping the crowd fed — the conference room, the car-full, the team, the watch-party crowd. They cater moments of human connection, proving value of fast food to being people together.

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About Sooth & ELI

Sooth is the predictive intelligence company decoding the 93% of human decisions driven by emotional, practical, and situational needs. Powered by ELI — Sooth’s exclusive Emotional Logic Interface — Sooth uncovers hidden signals, turning audience behavior into predictive foresight. Sooth’s patent-pending methodology uses artificial intelligence to cross-reference more than 100 million intent signals with data on 300 million individuals worldwide to predict buyer tendencies with 91% predictive accuracy. For more information, visit soothbetold.com and eliwashere.ai

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